Risk Disclosure

Market risk

• Prices can move sharply and unpredictably between observation and execution.
• Spreads identified by ArbAlpha may collapse before a trade is placed.
• Liquidity may evaporate without notice, leaving positions unfillable or unwindable.
• Implied probabilities can diverge from realised outcomes by a wide margin.

Execution risk

• Order-book depth changes continuously; the modelled fill size may not be available when you trade.
• Latency between the platform and the exchanges may cause partial fills or one-sided positions.
• Slippage may exceed estimates, eliminating any modelled edge.
• One leg of a paired trade may fill while the other does not, exposing you to outright directional risk.

Fee and cost risk

• Exchange fee schedules may change without notice.
• Estimated fees displayed by ArbAlpha may not reflect maker/taker tier, promotional rebates, or category-specific surcharges applied to your account.
• Withdrawal, network, and gas costs are not modelled and can be material.

Resolution risk

• Markets that appear equivalent may resolve on different criteria, sources, deadlines, or dispute processes.
• One exchange may resolve a market YES while the other resolves the apparently equivalent market NO.
• Resolution may be delayed, disputed, reversed, or voided.
• You must independently verify resolution criteria on both platforms before trading.

Counterparty and platform risk

• Third-party exchanges may halt trading, freeze withdrawals, delist markets, or become insolvent.
• Settlement may be delayed, partial, or fail entirely.
• Cross-platform settlement assumptions may be incorrect.
• ArbAlpha does not custody funds and cannot recover assets held with third-party platforms.

Technical risk

• APIs may be rate-limited, delayed, return stale prices, or fail entirely.
• The platform may experience downtime, data gaps, or incorrect data.
• Browser, network, device, or exchange-side technical failures may interfere with trade placement.

Regulatory and legal risk

• Prediction market regulation is evolving and varies by jurisdiction.
• Access to prediction markets may be restricted or prohibited where you live.
• Regulatory action may force exchanges to halt trading, alter resolution, or void contracts.
• Tax treatment of prediction market activity is unsettled in many jurisdictions.

Data-quality risk

• Data displayed by ArbAlpha is sourced from third parties and may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate.
• Matching of markets between exchanges is heuristic and may be wrong.
• Modelled fees, slippage, and depth are estimates only.